An Economic Analysis of Short-Run Timber Supply around the Globe

Authors: ​Peter Cardellichio, Yeo Chang Youn, Clark Binkley, Jeffrey Vincent, Darius Adams

​Summary
CINTRAFOR is conducting an analysis of forest products markets in the Pacific Rim.  The objective of this project is assessing the future outlook for forest products production, consumption, trade, and prices in the Pacific Rim.  The focus during the current phase of this project is on solid wood product markets, log/fiber markets, and related resource developments.  Although the emphasis is on Pacific Rim regions, especially those that affect the future of the Pacific Northwest, the research encompasses the entire world to maintain comprehensiveness and account for “third-party” trade interactions. 
 
This report documents work on one important component of the Pacific Rim Assessment – the statistical analysis and estimation of the timber supply module.  For each of the 40 regions in the model, we have analyzed the current price/resource situation.  Where relevant and feasible we have constructed short-run behavioral relationships for softwood sawtimber, hardwood sawtimber, softwood pulpwood, and hardwood pulpwood.
 
A second major component of the Pacific Rim Assessment – the development and testing of the model structure—has already been completed. 
 
This paper provides statistical analyses of short-run timber supply for several regions of the world that influence industrial timber markets in an important way.

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