Mass-Timber adoption projections in 12 countries for building construction
by Indroneil Ganguly
Study Objective
The objective of this study is to develop a framework for estimating potential demand estimates of mass timber for structural applications in residential buildings and non-residential buildings in Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia. To be able to develop the estimates for projected mass timber demand we need to have (i) estimates of housing starts by building height and type, (ii) amount of mass timber that can be used in these buildings, and (iii) the level of adoption of mass-timber structure. Given the primary benefit of mass timber buildings is its potential to displace the carbon intensive concrete and steel structures (Pierobon et al 2019, Gu et al 2021), the scope of the study is limited to existing building construction categories dominated by steel and concrete.
This study uses a forty year projection period, from 2021 to 2060. Projected housing starts by building height and building type is one of the key components of this analysis. For this study multifamily-residential and office buildings are considered as the primary market for mass timber framing systems. Each building type (residential and non-residential) is divided in three categories by number of stories, specifically, (i) 6 stories and less, (ii) 7 to 12 stories and (iii) 13 stories and up. These categories are considered based on the generally accepted international building codes.
Given the detailed information required for the housing starts, this study considered 12 countries across the globe, with varing housing starts and innovation adoption characteristics. Seven countries in Europe, three countries in Latin America, one country each in Asia and North America. The European countries include Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and U.K. The Latin American countries include, Argentina, Brazil and Chile. The United States and China are the two countries selected from North American and China, respectively.
Adoption of CLT:
For each of the regions, two realistic scenarios were, a conservative scenario, and a optimistic scenario. We also developed an extremely high mass timber penetration scenario, namely the extreme scenario. All the scenarios presented are based on a positive outlook of Mass Timber Construction, with the implicit assumption that mass timber-based constructions will continue to be considered a low-risk viable alternative to traditional building systems. Following is a quick overview of these scenario estimates:
Conservative estimates are based on the principle that past behavior is the strongest predictor of future behavior. Accordingly, these estimates provide high weights to the previous wood innovation adoption trends, in the countries/regions, especially in the housing construction sector. For example, in the past, the Western European Union countries have shown high innovation adoption propensity for wood-based construction materials over their traditional wood or non-wood counterparts. On the contrary, the Chinese building sector has not adopted any wood-based products for building construction in the past. The wood innovation adoption propensity of the US is on the higher side, but less than that of Europe. In the case of Latin America, we assigned a regional adoption propensity, based on past data, to be greater than that of China but significantly lower than the US.
Optimistic estimates use the conservative parameters as the baseline and add greater levels of information dissemination and willingness-to-adopt new technology factors to the model. If all the countries have supportive institutional support, with encouragement from the respective government agencies, along with easing the adoption hurdles, we could achieve this level of adoption. In this scenario, the non-residential buildings are assumed to get a greater boost, given the current trends and discussions in countries like China, Chile, and Brazil. In our assumptions, we mimicked the trends in countries like Japan (not included in the study), where, the government introduced specific policies for public buildings, which may boost mass timber use. In summary, the best-case scenario can be achieved if the governments in the respective countries develop a pro-CLT environment, easing the patch to adoption.
Extreme estimates use the optimistic estimates as the baseline and add high levels of product satisfaction with mass timber construction being considered as a significant economic/functional improvement over the traditional technology. This scenario adds even greater levels of information dissemination and willingness-to-adopt new technology factors to the model. The diffusion functions are asymptotic in nature and their rate of increase slows down, as they get closer and closer to the 100% mark. Given the W. European and the US adoption curves get into the maturity state in the previous scenario, the relative increase in this scenario is not that great for these regions/countries. However, China and the Latin American countries enter the high growth phase of their respective adoption curves under this scenario and experience massive growth. It may be noted, that I do not believe this scenario to be a plausible one, as market forces would start countering such a massive shift over a relatively short period.
The detailed data can be obtained from the following web-app:
The objective of this study is to develop a framework for estimating potential demand estimates of mass timber for structural applications in residential buildings and non-residential buildings in Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia. To be able to develop the estimates for projected mass timber demand we need to have (i) estimates of housing starts by building height and type, (ii) amount of mass timber that can be used in these buildings, and (iii) the level of adoption of mass-timber structure. Given the primary benefit of mass timber buildings is its potential to displace the carbon intensive concrete and steel structures (Pierobon et al 2019, Gu et al 2021), the scope of the study is limited to existing building construction categories dominated by steel and concrete.
This study uses a forty year projection period, from 2021 to 2060. Projected housing starts by building height and building type is one of the key components of this analysis. For this study multifamily-residential and office buildings are considered as the primary market for mass timber framing systems. Each building type (residential and non-residential) is divided in three categories by number of stories, specifically, (i) 6 stories and less, (ii) 7 to 12 stories and (iii) 13 stories and up. These categories are considered based on the generally accepted international building codes.
Given the detailed information required for the housing starts, this study considered 12 countries across the globe, with varing housing starts and innovation adoption characteristics. Seven countries in Europe, three countries in Latin America, one country each in Asia and North America. The European countries include Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and U.K. The Latin American countries include, Argentina, Brazil and Chile. The United States and China are the two countries selected from North American and China, respectively.
Adoption of CLT:
For each of the regions, two realistic scenarios were, a conservative scenario, and a optimistic scenario. We also developed an extremely high mass timber penetration scenario, namely the extreme scenario. All the scenarios presented are based on a positive outlook of Mass Timber Construction, with the implicit assumption that mass timber-based constructions will continue to be considered a low-risk viable alternative to traditional building systems. Following is a quick overview of these scenario estimates:
Conservative estimates are based on the principle that past behavior is the strongest predictor of future behavior. Accordingly, these estimates provide high weights to the previous wood innovation adoption trends, in the countries/regions, especially in the housing construction sector. For example, in the past, the Western European Union countries have shown high innovation adoption propensity for wood-based construction materials over their traditional wood or non-wood counterparts. On the contrary, the Chinese building sector has not adopted any wood-based products for building construction in the past. The wood innovation adoption propensity of the US is on the higher side, but less than that of Europe. In the case of Latin America, we assigned a regional adoption propensity, based on past data, to be greater than that of China but significantly lower than the US.
Optimistic estimates use the conservative parameters as the baseline and add greater levels of information dissemination and willingness-to-adopt new technology factors to the model. If all the countries have supportive institutional support, with encouragement from the respective government agencies, along with easing the adoption hurdles, we could achieve this level of adoption. In this scenario, the non-residential buildings are assumed to get a greater boost, given the current trends and discussions in countries like China, Chile, and Brazil. In our assumptions, we mimicked the trends in countries like Japan (not included in the study), where, the government introduced specific policies for public buildings, which may boost mass timber use. In summary, the best-case scenario can be achieved if the governments in the respective countries develop a pro-CLT environment, easing the patch to adoption.
Extreme estimates use the optimistic estimates as the baseline and add high levels of product satisfaction with mass timber construction being considered as a significant economic/functional improvement over the traditional technology. This scenario adds even greater levels of information dissemination and willingness-to-adopt new technology factors to the model. The diffusion functions are asymptotic in nature and their rate of increase slows down, as they get closer and closer to the 100% mark. Given the W. European and the US adoption curves get into the maturity state in the previous scenario, the relative increase in this scenario is not that great for these regions/countries. However, China and the Latin American countries enter the high growth phase of their respective adoption curves under this scenario and experience massive growth. It may be noted, that I do not believe this scenario to be a plausible one, as market forces would start countering such a massive shift over a relatively short period.
The detailed data can be obtained from the following web-app: