C I N T R A F O R
Special Paper Abstract
Proceedings of Project Group P.6.11 FORESEA Meetings 20th Annual IUFRO World Congress, Tampere, Finland
Lars Lönnstedt, Richard Haynes, Judy Mikowski, Compilers. 1996. (178 pp) SP22 $20.00
The sawnwood market in the former West Germany for the period 1970-1990 is described by Flinkman (1993) and is used in this study as a data base for econometric analyses of various end use sectors. The estimation is made of causal models for subsectors, based on intermediate demand theory and the theory of combined factor and consumer demand, applying Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) methods. Projections for exogenous variables (prices, costs etc.) are generated by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) processes. Two compositions of 19 exogenous variable projections, Base I and II alternatives, are then used to generate alternative forecasts for various subsectors.