C I N T R A F O R
Special Paper Abstract
Washington Forest Products: Transition to a New Paradigm
Bruce Lippke and Guy Robertson. 1995. (20 pp.) SP19 $5.00
The Washington State forest sector has experienced substantial curtailments since 1989 as a consequence of a 40% decline in timber harvest in response to endangered species conservation efforts. Surprisingly, real business income remains up 50% from 1964 to 1994 in spite of the harvest declines. Forest sector values per unit of harvest are up 110%, with most of those value increases being traced to increases in export markets. Even secondary manufacturing exports have begun to grow over the last five years and contribute to increased value. Export markets should continue to grow, supporting as much as a 2% per year increasing trend in unit values but starting with a lower volume base given the reduced harvest levels.
Still, the question of how the forest will be managed in the future remains an open issue. Current regulations constrain harvests to save habitat. The harvest reduction has the same effect as a tax on the creation of habitat. On non-federal lands this will drive the long term harvest level down further, with shorter rotations producing less suitable habitat. Research on management pathways to restore habitat shows that increased forest investment could greatly increase biodiversity and economic output with the higher values from quality wood paying for much of the increased cost. Using incentives to create habitat may be a new paradigm for the industry which could restore biodiversity and habitat to earlier levels, double economic activity over tune with strong support in the rural areas most negatively impacted by recent harvest declines, improve the balance of payments, and reduce carbon emissions, all with tax receipts exceeding the cost of incentives. Current reliance on regulatory constraints to produce for both timber and non-timber goals at the same time puts the forest sector at a critical crossroad. It can be pushed either toward more constraints or toward new paradigms with sustainable economic growth and environmental restoration.