ATL
Shows Greater Benefits for Forest Products Exports
[1]
Fact Sheet
#52
An analysis of the economic and environmental effects was carried out to assess the incremental economic and environmental impacts resulting from changes in the timing and scope of forest products tariff reductions as proposed in the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization (ATL) initiative in forest products. This initiative was proposed for agreement among member countries of the World Trade Organization. The analysis of environmental effects focuses on possible changes in timber harvest in the United States and worldwide, and rests directly on an analysis of the economic (trade, production, and consumption) effects of the initiative.
The ATL policy will lower tariffs on wood products, particularly in Asian markets. Such a policy will cause greater lumber exports and less log exports from the PNW. It will also reduce Japan’s timber harvests and increase its imports of lumber products. Globally, lumber prices decline and consumption of lumber increases. The benefits to the PNW region are small but significant. Such a policy may add from 960 to 1200 new jobs in the lumber and milling sector. While these job gains are only 20% of the potential job losses due to new proposed regulations to conserve salmon habitats, they would provide added relief to a sector that has been drastically reduced over the past 15 years.
Results of the
simulation of the effects of the ATL using the CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model
(CGTM) are summarized in Tables 1 and 2 on the following page. The effects of the ATL are likely to include
the following:
• An absence of
significant changes in production and consumption at the world scale. For all
products, production and consumption changes by less than 1 percent, and
typically by less than 0.5 percent, when compared to the baseline, in 2010.
• Changes in the commodity composition of trade (a shift toward more processed products), and in geographic patterns of production and trade. The results indicate that the ATL is likely to increase production in, and exports from northern Europe, Oceania (Australia and New Zealand), South America (Chile), and Asia (Indonesia and Malaysia).
• The likelihood
of changes in U.S. trade (both imports and exports)—accompanied by little or no
net effect on U.S. production and consumption. The results indicate the
likelihood of reductions in U.S. exports of logs and increases in exports of
some processed products.
Table 1: Summary of the effects of the ATL across all
regions as compared to the baseline, using the CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model
(CGTM).
|
|
Change
from Baseline in: |
|||
|
|
2000 |
2010 |
2000 |
2010 |
|
|
Production and Consumption
|
Trade
|
||
Product
|
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - |
|||
|
Softwood plywood |
0.30 |
0.08 |
5.90 |
12.90 |
|
Softwood lumber |
-0.14 |
-0.03 |
9.11 |
5.67 |
|
Softwood pulpwood |
-0.28 |
-0.33 |
1.04 |
1.05 |
|
Softwood sawlogs |
0.14 |
0.24 |
-4.16 |
-4.20 |
|
Hardwood plywood |
0.36 |
0.62 |
1.00 |
2.05 |
|
Hardwood lumber |
0.00 |
0.11 |
1.11 |
0.95 |
|
Hardwood pulpwood |
-0.03 |
-0.04 |
-0.01 |
-0.01 |
|
Hardwood sawlogs |
0.06 |
0.08 |
0.28 |
0.28 |
Table 2: Summary of the effects of the ATL on U.S.
production, consumption, and trade, in 2010, compared to the baseline, using
the CINTRAFOR Global Trade Model (CGTM).
|
|
Production |
Consumption |
Importsa |
Exports
|
|
Product |
-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - |
|||
|
Softwood sawlogs |
0.48 |
1.00 |
0.00 |
-7.30 |
|
Softwood sawnwood |
1.10 |
-0.40 |
1.04 |
20.00 |
|
Softwood plywood |
0.12 |
-0.23 |
NA |
79.94 |
|
Hardwood sawlogs |
0.39 |
0.39 |
0.00 |
0.39 |
|
Hardwood sawnwood |
0.40 |
-0.22 |
0.54 |
3.94 |
|
Hardwood plywood |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
aThese changes (in imports and
exports) overstate the effects of the ATL on international trade because
the model counts internal trade
among regions of the United States.
NA = not applicable.
[1] Perez-Garcia, John. 2001. The Effects of a Tariff Elimination Policy on the Forest Sector: A Global Perspective. CINTRAFOR Working Paper 79, Seattle, Wa.
Brooks, David J., J. A. Ferrante, J. Haverkamp, I. Bowles, W. Lange and D. Darr. 2001. Economic and Environmental Effects of Accelerated Tariff Liberalization in the Forest Products Sector. USDA Forest Service. Pacific Northwest Research Station. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-517. Portland, Or.
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